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Kim Whitmyre
04-05-2007, 11:29 AM
I saw this on SA, thought it was worth posting here:

Solar Bursts May Threaten GPS
Thursday, April 05, 2007 5:19:04 AM

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WASHINGTON(AP)

The Global Positioning System, relied on for everything from navigating cars and airplanes to transferring money between banks, may be threatened by powerful solar flares, a panel of scientists warned Wednesday.

"Our increasingly technologically dependent society is becoming increasingly vulnerable to space weather," David L. Johnson, director of the National Weather Service, said at a briefing.

GPS receivers have become widely used in recent years, using satellite signals in navigating airplanes, ships and automobiles, and in using cell phones, mining, surveying and many other commercial uses.

Indeed, banks use the system to synchronize money transfers, "so space weather can affect all of us, right down to our wallet," said Anthea J. Coster, an atmospheric scientist at the Haystack Observatory of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

The cause for their concern, Johnson said, was an unexpected solar radio burst on Dec. 6 that affected virtually every GPS receiver on the lighted half of Earth. Some receivers had a reduction in accuracy while others completely lost the ability to determine position, he said.

Solar activity rises and falls in 11-year cycles, with the next peak expected in 2011.

If that increasing level of activity produces more such radio bursts the GPS system could be seriously affected, the researchers said.

And protecting the system is no simple task, added Paul M. Kintner Jr., a professor of electrical engineering at Cornell University, who monitored the December event.

There are two possible ways to shield the system, he said, both very expensive. Either alter all GPS antennas to screen out solar signals or replace all of the GPS satellites with ones that broadcast a stronger signal.

That's why it's essential to learn more about the sun's behavior quickly in an effort to find ways to predict such events, the researchers said.

In addition to the GPS system, the December solar flare affected satellites and induced unexpected currents in the electrical grid, Johnson said.

"The effects were more profound than we expected and more widespread than we expected," added Kintner.

Dale E. Gary, chairman of the physics department of the New Jersey Institute of Technology, said the burst produced 10 times more radio noise than any burst previously recorded.

The difference between that burst and normal solar radio emissions "was like the difference between the noise level of a normal conversation and the noise level in the front row of a rock concert," he said.

"This is a wake-up call" to improve technology, commented Anthony J. Mannucci, group supervisor at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

Patricia H. Doherty, co-director of the Institute for Scientific Research at Boston College, said the burst affected but did not shut down the Federal Aviation Administration's Wide Area Augmentation System, which uses GPS signals to assist in navigation.

Most of the WAAS ground stations were able to maintain contact with enough satellites to continue working, though their accuracy was somewhat affected, she said.

The stations have to maintain contact with at least four satellites to work, but usually monitor at least 10 to increase their accuracy, she said. Most were able to meet the minimum, she said.

The briefing came at a Space Weather Enterprise Forum convened by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to discuss the effects of solar activity. Because of its increasing importance, Johnson said, the Weather Service's Space Environment Center was converted from a mainly research center in 2005 to an operational center reporting on solar activity and its impacts.

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On the Net

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: http://www.noaa.gov

National Weather Service: http://www.nws.noaa.gov

Space Environment Center: http://www.sec.noaa.gov

George Roberts
04-05-2007, 01:43 PM
Not to offend ---

The people who designed the GPS system knew about solar flares and associated noise. They even knew about the 11 year cycle of solar flares.

This "panel of scientists" is trying to justify its existence.

(I think banks might use only the time signal. They only need to contact 1 satellite for that.)

waters'l
04-05-2007, 02:21 PM
Well, it looks like it is a good idea to keep up your skills with the sextant and sight reduction tables;). Technology is nice, but having backup is a good idea and it looks so salty:cool:

paladin
04-05-2007, 03:22 PM
The "problem" isn't as much a problem as they try to get you to believe, and there are extensive error correction and anti jamming systems built in to it.......the El Cheapo units don't have as much redundancy built in as higher quality commercial systems...it's sorta like buying 160 mph rated Pirelli tires and you get warnings that the tires could have been made better and safer if you had spent double the price for the 175 mph rated ones...

Nicholas Carey
04-05-2007, 04:37 PM
(I think banks might use only the time signal. They only need to contact 1 satellite for that.)They don't even need that. They can synch time via NTP (network time protocol) off the NIST or Naval Observatory atomic clocks or any other public stratum 1 time server.

What's a stratum 1 time server, you say? From the documentation on NTP at www.ntp.org, "A stratum 1 time server is directly connected to a reference clock [e.g., an atomic clock] and is at the top of the time server hierarchy."

outofthenorm
04-05-2007, 04:51 PM
This "panel of scientists" is trying to justify its existence.


I suspect the same thing George. Sounds a lot like Y2K to me. Remember how that was going to be the end of life as we know it?:D

- Norm

George Roberts
04-05-2007, 06:02 PM
Nicholas Carey ---

You are certainly correct.

GregW
04-06-2007, 10:48 AM
Most of the WAAS ground stations were able to maintain contact with enough satellites to continue working, though their accuracy was somewhat affected, she said.

The stations have to maintain contact with at least four satellites to work, but usually monitor at least 10 to increase their accuracy, she said. Most were able to meet the minimum, she said.

I would have preferred if ALL of the WAAS ground stations were able to maintain contact with the minimum number of satellites, "most" stations doesn't sound very reassuring.

paladin
04-06-2007, 12:48 PM
The difference is in the targetting accuracy......one satellite gets you within 100 yards, 2 within 20 feet.....and 3 gets 1 foot accuracy......close enough for most nukes....

George Roberts
04-06-2007, 01:25 PM
I believe 3 satellites are needed to get any type of position.

More than 3 give improvements in accuracy.

Due to some crazy decisions altitude is the least accurate axis.

paladin
04-06-2007, 01:42 PM
Three satellites are needed in the sky.....to get the info....not on the ground with an active systems......with a military transponder they can ping the reference on the ground and ping the satellite info.....whether or not the ground station can hear all the satellites or not...as long as the bird in orbit can talk to it's friends.....the ground transponder uses a spread spectrum signal to reduce the effects of jamming and selective fading........

Gulfcoastbreeze
04-06-2007, 01:46 PM
Very interesting.

Next year's headline might be, "Chineese space weapons affect GPS accuracy."

paladin
04-06-2007, 01:47 PM
yup....a nuke blast in space......

Nicholas Carey
04-06-2007, 01:58 PM
I believe 3 satellites are needed to get any type of position.

More than 3 give improvements in accuracy.The User Segment (GPS receiver) requires 4 satellites to compute a solution (fix). 4 measurements are required to obtain a 3D fix in GPS-land: in addition to X/longitude, Y/latitude, Z/altitude, one needs 'time' as the 4th to lock it in. It's 4 equations with 4 unknowns, although in the real world, more equations/unknowns are factored in. Aside from anything else, the GPS satellites and the receiver are all in motion (even if putatively standing still, the receiver is still moving: the earth rotates at a pretty good clip): a good receiver should compute the doppler shift(s) and apply appropriate corrections.

Read more at http://www.navcen.uscg.gov/pubs/gps/sigspec/gpssps1.pdf

George Roberts
04-06-2007, 03:46 PM
I guess we have made different assumptions.